Scott Alexander, curated
← Back to curation

Followup On The Baumol Effect: Thanks, O Baumol

Quality
70
Strong
Claude Shift
40
Moderate
RWI
2
of 10

Follows up on

Book Review: Why Are The Prices So D*mn High? — Book review · Jun 2019

Summary

Followup to his review of Tabarrok & Helland's Why Are The Prices So D*mn High?, responding to Tabarrok's reply by doubling down: (1) median wages (incl. high-productivity sectors like manufacturing) aren't actually rising, so the Baumol mechanism's premise fails -- an existential challenge, not a 'could-be-clearer' nitpick; (2) teacher and doctor salaries specifically haven't risen (careful data: teacher salary's SHARE of education budgets fell since 1990; doctor pay ~stable since the 1970s), and the Baumol effect requires market-set salaries anyway, which licensing/bottlenecks distort; (3) he honestly RETRACTS his third objection (Baumol CAN make things less affordable for individuals who don't share in productivity gains). Part of his cost-disease investigation series.

Why this score

Quality 70 · Strong. A careful, data-driven economics rebuttal with real digging (salary-share trends; doctor/teacher pay) and characteristic honesty (retracting objection 3), but a technical followup in a series, narrower than the original Cost Disease essay. Strong.

Claude’s paradigm shift 40 · Moderate. Moderate. Applies fresh data to challenge a specific theory; a rebuttal rather than an original framework.

Real-world impact 2 · Minor. A narrow, technical economics rebuttal in a blog series; engaged the cost-disease discourse among readers but produced no policy or material-world change → RWI 2.