Scott Alexander, curated
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Age Gaps And Birth Order Effects

Quality
58
Solid
Claude Shift
36
Slight
RWI
2
of 10

Follows up on

Fight Me, Psychologists: Birth Order Effects Exist And Are Very Strong — Original research · Jan 2018

Summary

[Flagged at the top as partly-wrong — Scott endorses a later reanalysis as better.] Uses the 2019 SSC survey (2,835 one-sibling readers) to ask how age gaps modulate birth-order effects. Reproduces the 71/29 older/younger imbalance and reports effects roughly flat from 1-7-year gaps then a sharp 'cliff' after 7 years, which he reads as evidence for intra-family-competition or parental-investment mechanisms over maternal-antibody or vitamin-depletion accounts. Honest about the oddities (70% older even at a 'zero-year' gap) and releases the data.

Why this score

Quality 58 · Solid. 58 — on-merit a competent ~64 exploratory original-research post (real question, multiple hypotheses weighed, data shared), DOCKED ~6 for the self-flagged retraction of its central age-gap finding. Lands at upper-Solid.

Claude’s paradigm shift 36 · Slight. 36 — Slight. An incremental follow-up to his earlier birth-order work; the age-gap angle is a modest extension, not a new frame, and is the part that didn't hold up.

Real-world impact 2 · Minor. 2 — within-blog original-research curiosity; no reach beyond the community (and undercut by the retraction).