(Late) Predictions for 2015

A (June, hence 'late') list of 35 predictions for 2015 with confidence levels — world events (no major US war, Assad survives, an Iran nuclear deal, Bitcoin > $200) and personal life (SSC stays active, job, relationships, Solstice). A bare prediction list, made before the year's-end scoring that calibration requires.

Quality 51 · Solid. 51 — Solid. A routine annual prediction list (the calibration practice is worthwhile, but as a post it's just the un-scored list).

Claude’s paradigm shift 25 · Slight. 25 — Slight; routine forecasting administrivia.

Real-world impact 2 · Minor. 2 — Scott's public-calibration habit is mildly influential in rationalist circles; this specific list is routine.