The Trend Evaluation Of All Values

A results post for a reader-prediction exercise: 170 readers predicted what percent of Americans agree with vaguely political statements ('I am very patriotic,' etc.) and how those have shifted over 22 years. Findings: readers were bad at predicting agreement levels (avg 15% error -- e.g. badly underestimating support for stricter environmental laws (83%) and the importance of daily prayer (78%)), and expected modern Americans to be ~5 points more leftist than they are; they did better on predicting change-over-time (avg 5% error), but overestimated society's leftward shift (the real shift was only ~2 points per issue). Contrary to Scott's hypothesis, Reactionary and Progressive predictors performed essentially identically. Names the winners and posts the raw data. A competent but slight forecasting/calibration exercise with modest findings.

Quality 55 · Solid. Mid-Solid (55): a competent reader-prediction exercise with a couple of mildly interesting findings (people overestimate America's leftward drift; predictors are poor at absolute opinion levels; no Reactionary/Progressive accuracy gap) -- but a short, bare results report, which caps it mid-Solid.

Claude’s paradigm shift 32 · Slight. Slight (32): the exercise and its 'overestimated the leftward shift' result are mildly interesting, but it's a results report conveying data rather than a novel idea.

Real-world impact 2 · Minor. A reader-prediction results post with mildly interesting findings (people overestimate America's leftward drift); a short bare results report within the discourse, no material-world reach → RWI 2.