Scott Alexander, curated
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Statistical Literacy Among Doctors Now Lower Than Chance

Quality
56
Solid
Claude Shift
18
None
RWI
2
of 10

Summary

A short polemic: a study finds Ob/Gyn residents answer a p-value true/false question worse than a coin flip and a Bayesian mammogram question barely above chance - juxtaposed with the FDA barring people from seeing their own genome because only doctors can be trusted to understand the statistics. Notes a Dunning-Kruger effect (those who scored worst rated their own literacy highest).

Why this score

Quality 56 · Solid. A sharp, well-aimed, quotable piece pairing a real study with a damning policy juxtaposition, but brief and narrow - commentary on one study. Upper Solid.

Claude’s paradigm shift 18 · None. The point (clinicians are poor at p-values / Bayesian reasoning) was already established (Gigerenzer; Yudkowsky's mammogram example); no new idea. Slight.

Real-world impact 2 · Minor. A sharp polemic pairing a real study (doctors' sub-chance statistical literacy) with a damning policy juxtaposition; quotable commentary within the discourse, no material-world reach → RWI 2.