Nonmindkilling open questions

A short community discussion-prompt: Scott wants a worked example for teaching 'express your beliefs as probabilities,' but can't find one that satisfies all his criteria — it must be factual (not value-laden or counterfactual), popular and important, genuinely high-uncertainty (reasonable people reluctant to go >90% or <10%), free of an opportunity to gain status by signaling overwhelming support for the 'responsible' side (so cryonics, psi, and JFK are out), and minimally mind-killing (global warming and God's existence both fail). He asks the community for candidates — and closes with the real hook: 'if there aren't many such questions, what does that say about us?' (i.e., it is surprisingly hard to find important factual questions where smart people openly disagree without the disagreement being tribal).

Quality 56 · Solid. Upper-Minor. More than a bare prompt — the criteria are sharp and the closing observation (how few non-tribal high-uncertainty factual questions exist) is a real insight — but the post poses the question rather than developing it, so it scores per the discussion-prompt convention.

Claude’s paradigm shift 28 · Slight. Slight — the criteria and the closing observation carry mild novelty; the post is mostly a request for examples.

Real-world impact 2 · Minor. A community discussion-prompt seeking a teaching example for probabilistic belief, with a real closing insight (how few non-tribal high-uncertainty factual questions exist); poses rather than develops, discourse-internal, no material reach → RWI 2.