Bonus Wisdom Of Crowds Analysis

A two-sentence data bonus to the wisdom-of-crowds post: respondents who reported having multiple personalities were no better at within-self wisdom-of-crowds (averaging their own two guesses) than anyone else — an honestly reported null result Scott didn't expect to go anywhere (he didn't even ask them to switch personalities between guesses). A chart and a caveat.

Quality 43 · Solid. Solid band, low. A legitimate, honestly reported null datapoint, but barely a post — a single follow-up result with no development. Sits at the bottom of the substantive range.

Claude’s paradigm shift 12 · None. None. A lone empirical footnote; no idea-content or novelty.

Real-world impact 1 · Negligible. A two-sentence honestly-reported null datapoint (multiple-personality respondents no better at within-self crowd-averaging); barely a post, with no development or material-world reach → RWI 1.