Who Predicted 2022?

Writeup of Scott's 508-person 2022 forecasting contest, replicating known findings with a new dataset: superforecasters ~84th %ile, wisdom-of-crowds ~84th, aggregate-of-superforecasters 97th, prediction markets 99.5th (with the research-time caveat); no demographic predictors except a shaky IQ>150 signal; the winners' strategies (the win-probability-not-accuracy maximizer). Closes with the 'knowledge efficiency / pushing back the veil' framing.

Quality 71 · Strong. Strong: more than a contest recap — it tests real hypotheses and lands the memorable knowledge-efficiency frame; empirically grounded and well-written.

Claude’s paradigm shift 50 · Moderate. Notable: replicates Tetlock-style findings on a fresh dataset + the knowledge-efficiency framing.

Real-world impact 2 · Minor. Feeds forecasting discourse; the contest is a recurring institution. =2.