Semaglutidonomics

The economics companion to the GLP-1 posts. Models semaglutide accessibility (interest x awareness x prescription-accessibility x affordability), the $500B-if-everyone-took-it problem vs the actual ~50k current users, the Morgan Stanley projection ($30B market / 11.3M patients / price falling to ~$4k/yr by 2030), cost-effectiveness (the ICER ~$8k/yr break-even), the 2032 off-patent timeline, and a transhumanist coda (the post-obesity future). Postscripts on whether to take it, cheating the system, world prices, and predictions. Clear, numerate, important topic.

Quality 72 · Strong. Strong - a lucid, numerate explainer of an important real-world phenomenon, with a useful accessibility framework and honest cost-effectiveness reasoning. Held below Excellent because it largely synthesizes/operationalizes existing data (the Morgan Stanley report, standard health-econ) on a topical subject - a model deep-dive rather than an original thesis.

Claude’s paradigm shift 42 · Moderate. Moderate - synthesizes existing projections + a simple multiplicative accessibility decomposition; no new framework.

Real-world impact 2 · Minor. Within-discourse health-economics explainer; the drug's real-world impact is enormous but the post documents/models rather than causes it.