Which Party Has Gotten More Extreme Faster?
Read the original on Astral Codex Ten →
Summary
Decomposes the heated 'which party got more extreme faster' question (the Wright/Musk meme) into four distinct sub-questions and answers each. (1) Changed policy positions more in their preferred direction since ~1994? Clear: Democrats -- the conservative/progressive first-principles argument (progressives by definition keep moving; the Tumblr-survey on who'd press a 'restore 1990' button) plus Pew data (Dems +22 pts left, Republicans ~0). (2) Diverged further from ordinary Americans? A tie (Median Voter Theorem; both parties roughly balanced, Republicans winning + structurally advantaged but rated 'extreme' slightly more). (3) More ideologically pure? Republicans (DW-NOMINATE, with a sharp caveat that its long-range 'bridge legislator' method yields nonsense like 1880-Democrats being left of 2020-Democrats). (4) Crazier in worldview/messaging? He pointedly punts (no non-cherry-picked dataset; a sardonic both-sidesist non-answer). Concludes the meme is about sub-question 1, where Democrats are the driver, while purity-based readings point to Republicans.
Why this score
Quality 73 · Strong. Strong. A careful, even-handed empirical decomposition that defuses a fight by separating four conflated questions and giving each a clear, data-grounded answer (the conservative/progressive first-principles argument and the DW-NOMINATE-is-nonsense-over-long-ranges critique are both sharp). Mid-Strong as a clarifying analysis rather than a foundational contribution.
Claude’s paradigm shift 48 · Moderate. Moderate. The four-way decomposition is a fresh-ish framing; the underlying data (Pew, DW-NOMINATE, Median Voter Theorem) is existing.
Real-world impact 2 · Minor. Minor. Within the polarization discourse; no material reach. 2.