Diseasonality
Read the original on Astral Codex Ten →
Follow-up reading
↳ Highlights From The Comments On Diseasonality — Highlights (companion) · Dec 2021
Summary
Conjecture piece (explicitly flagged low-confidence) on why diseases are seasonal. Works through the standard theories (cold, humidity, indoor crowding, vitamin-D [dismissed]) and their failure (Alaska-summer vs Florida-winter), adds UV, then proposes a synthetic 'entrainment/zeitgeber' model: waning ~yearly immunity gives epidemics a natural once-a-year period that seasonal factors merely entrain — so Alaska's summer only has to 'outrun' Alaska's winter, not Florida's. Applies it to COVID as a half-seasonal disease.
Why this score
Quality 67 · Strong. Strong: the entrainment reframe (flu spikes are more fundamental than seasonality; seasons just set the phase) is a genuine, memorable synthetic model; docked for being speculative and out-of-field by his own admission.
Claude’s paradigm shift 48 · Moderate. Notable: an original conjectural model that reframes the seasonality puzzle, building on SIR/immunity basics.
Real-world impact 1 · Negligible. Speculative within-blog reasoning; negligible material reach. =1.