Mantic Monday: Predictions For 2021

Scott's annual list of 108 predictions for 2021 (US/world, econ/tech, COVID, community, personal, work, blog, meta), framed as a Mantic Monday — the raw prediction list with brief framing about calibration, many personal items redacted. This is the predictions-LIST installment (the scoring/analysis comes later in the calibration-results post). Minimal standalone content: a bare, if characteristically wide-ranging, list of dated probability estimates.

Quality 52 · Solid. Solid-floor (52). A bare annual-predictions list with little analysis; useful as a calibration artifact but low on standalone insight, below the calibration-RESULTS posts (which at least add binning and lessons).

Claude’s paradigm shift 30 · Slight. Slight (30). A recurring personal-predictions exercise; no novelty in the list itself.

Real-world impact 1 · Negligible. 1 — a personal predictions list; negligible real-world effect.